Hereâs the shockwave rippling across North America right now â and why Washington suddenly looks like itâs begging Canada not to walk away.

For years, the U.S.âCanada relationship ran on autopilot. Washington set the tempo, Ottawa followed the sheet music. Buy American jets. Align on tariffs. Keep geopolitics inside the U.S. orbit. Even Donald Trump bragged in both his terms that America âneeded nothingâ from Canada, treating the northern neighbor like a guaranteed loyal extension of U.S. strategy.
Then, almost overnight, that old script caught fire.
At a recent public event, U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra appeared in a tone nobody expected: not confident, not commanding â but anxious. He pleaded for Canada to stay close to the F-35 program, urged Ottawa to keep its distance from China, and even tried to frame the F-35 as âinternationalâ rather than unmistakably American. It landed less like partnership talk and more like a superpower realizing its leverage is slipping. the deep dive+2AP News+2

Why the panic? Because Canada is no longer acting like the junior partner.
In the span of one week, Ottawa has cracked open three pillars of U.S. influence at once:
1) The F-35 deal is wobbling.
Canadaâs long-planned purchase of 88 F-35A jets is under formal reassessment. Industry Minister Melanie Joly said out loud what Washington feared she might: Canadaâs industrial return hasnât matched the massive cost. In plain terms: where are the Canadian jobs, factories, and contracts that justify this price tag? National Security Journal+2Global News+2
Thatâs not a small complaint â itâs a direct hit on the F-35âs real power: its supply-chain grip. Canada isnât just a buyer; Canadian firms are woven into the F-35 production network. If Ottawa trims the order or walks away, Lockheed Martin loses cash and the myth of inevitability. Reuters+1
2) Swedenâs Gripen offer just became a real threat.
Almost immediately after Jolyâs comments, Canada rolled out the red carpet for Sweden â including a high-profile delegation tied to Saab and even the Swedish royal family. The pitch was bold: build Gripen fighter jets in Canada, anchored by Canadian aerospace giants like Bombardier, and create up to 10,000 jobs. Even critics admit the offer is serious enough to force a rethink, and Joly confirmed talks will continue. Global News+3National Security Journal+3Army Recognition+3

Gripen isnât just âanother plane.â It represents something the U.S. hates to see emerging in allies: operational autonomy. The jet is designed to run without deep American software dependencies or U.S.-controlled parts bottlenecks. For Canada, thatâs a doorway to defense independence. For Washington, itâs a nightmare headline: Canada breaks the monopoly. National Security Journal+1
Lockheedâs reaction said everything. Instead of quiet lobbying, the company issued public warnings that Canadaâs industrial benefits could shrink if the order shrinks. When a giant like Lockheed speaks that bluntly, itâs because it knows the ground is moving under its feet. National Security Journal+1
3) Trade and minerals: the deeper battle.
Hereâs the part that makes the F-35 drama look like a surface ripple. Canada has also challenged U.S. tariff pressure and accelerated talks to expand trade and strategic-mineral partnerships across Asia and Europe. Even more striking: Canada just joined the EUâs SAFE defense fund, explicitly aiming to reduce reliance on U.S. suppliers. AP News
Thatâs why Hoekstra pivoted into rare-earths and critical minerals â because Washington understands the real chessboard. Canada sits on some of the worldâs most valuable reserves used in fighter jets, batteries, satellites, and next-gen weapons. The U.S. has assumed those resources would naturally flow south. But if Ottawa diversifies toward new partners, America loses control over inputs that fuel its entire defense machine. AP News+1
So the ambassadorâs awkward line about hoping Canada âstill likes us more than Chinaâ?
That wasnât humor. That was a tell. A confession that the U.S. suddenly sees Canada not as a guaranteed ally â but as a swing player who can recalibrate the map.
This is what a real power shift looks like: not a single treaty ripped up, not a dramatic breakup press conference â but a steady, deliberate redistribution of options. Canada is signaling it will buy what serves Canadians, trade where it benefits Canadians, and control resources on Canadian terms.
Whether Ottawa ultimately sticks with the F-35, pivots to Gripen, or chooses a mixed fleet is almost secondary now. The larger story has already detonated in public:
Canada has started acting like a country that knows it has leverage.
And Washington â for the first time in decades â is acting like it knows it, too.
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