Fantasy Baseball 2026 might be remembered for a bold decision: placing Nick Kurtz at number one in the first base… when he hadn’t even played a full MLB season.
We’ve seen young stars explode onto the scene. But for a player with virtually no data to climb straight to the top of the draft in a position once considered a symbol of stability—that’s what makes many managers pause.
First base is getting better, yes. But it’s no longer the superstar-studded landscape of its heyday. Kurtz’s arrival brings a breath of fresh air, bringing the position back to the center of the fantasy map. The problem is: behind the elite tier, the depth is practically freefalling.
At its peak, everything looked great. Kurtz. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Pete Alonso. Bryce Harper. Matt Olson. Names you could trust in the draft room. But just one beat too slow—or choosing a different position—and the draft starts to get… frustrating.
In Roto leagues, where managers often have to find corner infielders from the first-base pool, this lack of depth is even more pronounced. About a dozen attractive options. Then? A tier where you have to convince yourself that it’s “okay.”
Therefore, Kurtz being pushed to the number one spot isn’t just about talent—it’s also about the market’s reaction. Fantasy always favors stability at the top of the pack. And Kurtz is expected to deliver power-RBI stats comparable to veterans like Alonso or Olson, even with a limited sample size.
Meanwhile, Matt Olson is the “boring but effective” pick. Averaging .261, 37 homer, and over 100 RBI per season for four years with the Braves. His stats are almost indistinguishable from those drafted 15 turns earlier. But because he’s not new, not “explosive,” he’s dropped to tier two according to ADP.
Conversely, some big names are starting to raise questions.
Freddie Freeman remains an icon, but in the last two seasons he’s only averaged 23 home runs per year. At 36, using a premium pick for a production that doesn’t outperform the group of drafters 30–40 runs later is no longer a self-evident decision.
Josh Naylor? 30 steals last season sounds very appealing — until you look at his sprint speed at 3rd percentile. If his steal count drops sharply to 10, he’ll revert to his familiar image: a good hitter but not a differentiator.
And then there’s Spencer Torkelson — once considered a future prospect, but after a hot start, he only had 17 home runs and 36 RBIs in the final four months of the season. With a career average of .227, he needs to be a true home run machine to maintain his value. So far, things haven’t stabilized.
At the bottom of the draft, names like Kazuma Okamoto, Alec Burleson, and Andrew Vaughn offer upside hope. Okamoto had six seasons with 30 home runs in Japan. Burleson showed significant improvement in exit velocity and fly ball rate. Vaughn exploded after joining Brewers. But they all fall into the “if things go right” category.
And that’s the crux of the 2026 first base: the top tier is incredibly bright, but the middle and lower tiers are fraught with conditions.
Fantasy is always about risk management. But this year, the risk isn’t about picking the wrong people—it’s about not picking the right people in time. If you miss out on the elite group, you’ll have to build compensatory strategies in other positions.
Nick Kurtz stands at the top of the list as a symbol of renewed hope. But is it a belief in talent… or the consequence of a position lacking depth to the point where the market is forced to push a young star too quickly?
And if Kurtz doesn’t immediately live up to the “all-around superstar” standard, will Fantasy 2026 remember him as a logical turning point… or a gamble that has caused many seasons to collapse by the third round?
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