Canada thought it understood the risks.
A fixed price. A clear contract. Predictable timelines. A modern fighter fleet that would last a generation.
Then reality hitâfast, hard, and expensive.

When Ottawa first announced its 19-billion-dollar F-35 procurement in 2022, Canadians were told the numbers were stable and under control. But by 2025, that projection had already exploded to nearly $27.7 billion, a jaw-dropping 50% surge in barely three years. And the most unsettling part? Not a single official can say the costs have peaked.
Canada isnât just buying jets. Itâs buying uncertainty.
The Auditor General delivered the next shock:
the true total cost could reach $33.2 billion once hangar renovations, runway expansions, hardened electrical systems, new cybersecurity walls, and weapons-storage upgrades are factored in. Nearly $5.5 billion in infrastructure spending was never disclosed at the outset. It surfaced laterâquietly, inconveniently, and politically explosively.
As one MP put it:
âThis isnât a procurementâitâs a trap door.â

Even some within government admit unease. Planning documents reveal senior officials only have 50% confidence in the current cost projections. Bases in Cold Lake and Bagotville both require massive rebuilds before a single F-35 can operate safely. Canada isnât just buying aircraftâit is rebuilding the architecture of its entire air-defense system.
And then came the warning that shook Ottawa awake: Switzerland.
Switzerlandâs F-35 deal was supposed to be the âsafeâ model. A locked-in price. Full transparency. No surprises.
Instead, it detonated.
In a few short years, Switzerlandâs âfixedâ contract ballooned by an additional 650 million to 1.5 billion francs. Public outrage erupted when auditors revealed the government had been warned the price guarantees were legally fragileâand ignored the warning. Then a trade war sparked when the United States slapped Swiss goods with a devastating 39% tariff, turning a defense contract into a geopolitical choke point.

If a meticulous, hyper-cautious nation like Switzerland couldnât prevent an F-35 cost spiral, what chance does Canada have?
Suddenly Ottawa wasnât asking, âHow much will this cost?â
It was asking, âAre we even in control of this program at all?â
Prime Minister Mark Carney launched a full review. Defence Minister Bill Blair was told to explore every alternative. Industry Minister Mélanie Joly demanded to know why Canada was spending tens of billions abroad while receiving so little domestic industrial benefit at home.
Then a surprising contender surged back into the conversation: Swedenâs Gripen.
Unlike the F-35, the Gripen is designed for countries with vast territory, harsh winters, limited budgets, and dispersed operations. A 2024 Janeâs analysis shows:
- 60% lower life-cycle cost than the F-35
- Able to launch from 200-meter improvised runways, including highways
- 85%+ availability rate (a level the F-35 often fails to meet)
- Can be serviced by four technicians, refueled and rearmed in under 10 minutes
And the real shock? Saab proposes assembling the Gripen in Canada.
That includes:
- Up to 10,000 jobs
- A Montreal-based Gripen center for upgrades and maintenance
- 100% industrial offsets, reinvesting the full value of the contract into Canada
- R&D hubs in Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal
- Full transfer of intellectual propertyâmeaning Canada could upgrade its jets without U.S. approval
In other words, the Gripen isnât just a fighter jet.
Itâs a national industrial strategy.
But the F-35 has its defenders. Former Chief of Defence Staff Tom Lawson argues Canada cannot afford multiple aircraft types. Too complex. Too costly. Too risky.
Yet Joly counters that most G7 militaries already operate multi-platform fleetsâintentionally diversifying supply chains and reducing dependence on any single foreign supplier.
That leaves Canada standing at a historic crossroads.
One path leads deeper into a U.S.-dominated defense ecosystem where every upgrade, part, and overhaul must pass through Washington.
The other builds a domestic aerospace renaissanceâjobs, autonomy, and sovereignty baked directly into the fighter fleet.
The choice is not simply F-35 versus Gripen.
It is dependence versus independence.
Cost spirals versus cost control.
Buying aircraft versus building an industry.
For the next 30 to 40 years, this decision will define Canadaâs strategic identity.
Which future should Canada choose?
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