The Freddy Peralta trade was always going to be judged in October.
New York Mets starting pitcher Brandon Sproat. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
But just weeks into spring training, it’s already being debated again.
FanGraphs’ newly released Top 100 prospect list for 2026 has reignited discussion about the New York Mets’ blockbuster deal with the Milwaukee Brewers — specifically, whether the Mets parted with the right young arm.
Brandon Sproat landed at No. 37 overall.
That’s more than 20 spots ahead of Jonah Tong, who checked in at No. 58. For a fan base that spent the entire offseason arguing about which pitcher was more expendable, the ranking feels like gasoline on embers that never fully cooled.
To be fair, the Mets still boast elite pitching talent in their system. Nolan McLean sits at No. 3 overall — a reminder that the organization’s long-term outlook remains strong. Jett Williams also cracked the list at No. 75, underscoring the overall depth of the farm.
Still, Sproat’s rise stings.
Because it forces the question: if the Mets had a choice, did they trade the wrong pitcher?
Context matters.
The Brewers held leverage in negotiations. If Milwaukee insisted on Sproat as the centerpiece for Peralta, president of baseball operations David Stearns may not have had much room to maneuver. Front offices rarely advertise when they’re boxed in.
But assuming there was flexibility, it’s understandable why the debate lingers.
Sproat enters one of baseball’s most respected pitching development systems. Milwaukee has built a reputation as a factory for maximizing arms — refining mechanics, sharpening pitch shapes, and elevating ceilings. Early reports out of Brewers camp suggest Sproat is already drawing praise.
Meanwhile, Tong’s brief taste of the majors in 2025 was rocky.
After overpowering minor league hitters with a 1.43 ERA and an eye-popping 40.5% strikeout rate across 22 starts, Tong ran into reality at the big-league level. In five starts, he logged just 18 2/3 innings with a 7.71 ERA, struggling to command his secondary pitches against elite hitters.
That stat line is easy to circle.
But it’s also dangerous to overreact.
Tong is just 22 years old. His fastball shape remains one of the most intriguing in the system — a pitch that misses bats at an uncommon rate when located properly. Unlike Sproat, who often succeeds through contact management and pitchability, Tong’s ceiling hinges on swing-and-miss dominance.
If he refines his off-speed arsenal, his upside could surpass expectations.
And that’s the nuance often lost in prospect debates.
Sproat may be ranked higher today. That doesn’t guarantee he’ll have the better career. Development is rarely linear, especially for pitchers. A year from now, the narrative could shift again.
The Mets didn’t trade Sproat lightly. They traded him for Freddy Peralta — a proven major league starter who strengthens a rotation built to compete now.
That’s the crux of it.
This was a win-now move. Prospect rankings are snapshots. Championships define legacies.
Sproat and Tong will inevitably be linked for years because of this trade. Every start in Milwaukee, every outing in Queens, will be compared.
But until October results are written, it’s far too early to call it regret — or redemption.
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