On paper, the 2025 Chicago White Sox were not a 102-loss team.
Sep 27, 2025; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Chicago White Sox manager Will Venable walks back to the dugout after making a pitching change against the Washington Nationals during the second inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
According to Baseball Reference’s Pythagorean win-loss formula — Bill James’ long-standing method for estimating expected record based on runs scored and allowed — Chicago “should” have finished 71–91. Instead, they stumbled to 60–102, the largest gap between expected and actual record in Major League Baseball last season.
That raises an uncomfortable question: were the White Sox simply unlucky, or fundamentally flawed?
The raw totals suggest opportunity was there. Chicago scored 647 runs and allowed 742. Those figures align closely with a 71-win projection. But baseball games aren’t played in formulas — they’re decided in moments.
And the White Sox failed in the moments that mattered most.
Chicago went 15–36 in one-run games, the worst mark in MLB. That’s not random noise over a full season. That’s a pattern.
Late-inning execution — both on the mound and at the plate — repeatedly broke down. The bullpen struggled to hold leads, and the lineup rarely delivered when traffic was on the bases.
The bullpen numbers were particularly alarming.
The White Sox finished last in baseball in saves, converting just 25 of 49 opportunities. Nearly half of their chances slipped away. Steven Wilson alone blew seven saves in nine chances, emblematic of a relief corps that never found stability.
One early snapshot of the season set the tone. On April 6 against Detroit, Chicago carried a 3–1 lead into the ninth inning with one out. Minutes later, a two-run Spencer Torkelson double sealed a walk-off loss. It was the kind of gut punch that became all too familiar.
Even during stretches of improvement — like a respectable 12–13 mark in July — the same theme persisted. Competitive games. Missed finishes.
But pitching wasn’t the only culprit.
If you want to identify the difference between contenders and rebuilders, look at production with runners in scoring position. In 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers led the majors in OPS+ in those situations — and went on to win the World Series. The Toronto Blue Jays ranked second and came within two outs of a title.
The White Sox? They ranked 28th, posting an 82 OPS+ with RISP. Only two teams were worse. They shared that number with the Colorado Rockies, who finished with the worst overall record in the league.
That’s not coincidence. That’s separation.
Manager Will Venable and his staff can’t swing the bats themselves, but lineup construction and late-game decision-making matter. Chicago often stuck to predictable patterns in 2025. A more flexible, matchup-driven approach may be necessary in 2026.
There is reason for cautious optimism.
Munetaka Murakami’s arrival could inject legitimate middle-of-the-order thunder. In Japan, he built a reputation for delivering in pressure situations. If that translates, it changes the complexion of Chicago’s offense overnight.
There were also quiet strengths worth noting.
The White Sox finished with the sixth-best stolen base percentage in 2025, showing efficiency on the basepaths. Luis Robert Jr. accounted for 33 of the club’s 85 steals, converting 33 of 41 attempts before his departure. Replacing that production won’t be easy, and baserunning may regress.
But improvement doesn’t require everything to change — just the right things.
If the bullpen stabilizes and the lineup finds even league-average production in high-leverage at-bats, the math suggests a significant step forward. The difference between 60 wins and the mid-70s isn’t theoretical.
It’s execution.
For the 2026 White Sox, progress won’t be about dramatic overhauls. It will come down to holding leads, cashing in opportunities, and making sharper decisions when the game tightens.
In other words, turning close losses into earned victories — the kind that can quietly transform a season.
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